Speaker: Dr. Ka-Kit Tung (UW-Seattle)

Abstract:

Four years after a plausible modeling explanation by Meehl et al (2011, Nature Climate Change) of a phenomenon that started 16 years ago, the global warming hiatus, as it is often called, has motivated intense research efforts to understand it.  Yet instead of the theories converging, we are actually witnessing a divergence of theories, modeling results and even observational products.  I will provide a critical review of the current progress, and attempt to reconcile seemingly different pieces of evidence.  Issues to be addressed include: whether or not there is observational evidence for the slowdown; whether any perceived slowdown can pass statistical tests; do we need to look below the surface? is it caused by a reduction of radiative forcing from above or by the sequestration of heat below? If the latter, which ocean is doing the sequestering: the Pacific, Atlantic, Southern Ocean, or the Indian Ocean?

Please see attached background reading for Dr. Tung's upcoming talk.