# Department Colloquium Series

## Date:

Monday, April 10, 2017, 12:00pm

## Location:

Geological Museum Haller Hall (102)
Elizabeth Barnes
Assistant Professor
Department of Atmospheric Science
The unprecedented loss of sea ice and associated amplified warming of the Arctic in recent years has spurred a flurry of research on how these changes at high latitudes may impact the jet-streams, and thus weather, at lower latitudes. While there is ample model evidence that future Arctic warming and sea ice loss will modulate the changes to the jet-stream by 2100 under climate change, there is much disagreement on whether we have already witnessed substantial impacts. One possible reason for the substantial disagreement in the literature is the issue of causality. Most observational studies employ some form of correlation analysis in an attempt to quantify the response of the midlatitude circulation to variations in sea ice loss and Arctic warming. However, as the saying goes, correlation does not equal causation'', and thus, there is always concern that the links identified are instead a reflection of the midlatitude circulation driving the Arctic warming and ice loss.