EPS Colloquium – Gabriele Villarini, Princeton University

From Rainfall to Risk: A High‑Resolution Framework for Flood Hazard and Impact Assessment

Understanding and anticipating flood risk in a warming climate requires modeling systems that are physically grounded, computationally efficient, and capable of capturing both hazards and their societal consequences. In this seminar, I present an integrated framework that connects high resolution hydrologic modeling, two dimensional flood inundation simulation, and socio economic impact assessment. At its core is Tiger HLM, a parsimonious, calibration free, GPU accelerated hydrologic model driven by globally derived parameters and capable of simulating runoff and streamflow across large domains. These outputs feed into the TRITON hydrodynamic model to generate detailed fluvial and pluvial flood inundation maps, enabling evaluation of historical flood behavior as well as future changes under climate warming.

I illustrate the framework’s versatility through continental scale simulations, basin level case studies, and integrated analyses of exposure and damages. Together, these components provide a fast, flexible, and scientifically robust platform for characterizing flood hazards and their societal impacts under current and future climate conditions.

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Gabriele Villarini is a Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering and in the High Meadows Environmental Institute at Princeton University, where he also serves as Vice Dean of the School of Engineering and Applied Science. He received his Ph.D. in Civil and Environmental Engineering and MBA from the University of Iowa. His research focuses on flood hydrology, extremes, and climate predictions and projections. He has published over 280 papers and is the Editor‑in‑Chief of Advances in Water Resources. His honors include the EGU Outstanding Young Scientist Award and the AGU’s James B. Macelwane Medal, and he is an AGU Fellow.