Speaker: Marena Lin
Marena will be presenting on the paper Guo et al. (2015), "Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models:”
Here are her thoughts on the paper:
All-India Monsoon Rainfall is estimated to have declined over the second half of the 20th century, with some attributing this primarily to increased anthropogenic GHGs and others to increases in aerosols. Guo et al. (2015) investigate the effects of aerosols, differentiating between the indirect and direct effects, on Indian monsoon rainfall in the CMIP5 models. In their model comparisons, they find that observed negative trends in precipitation are best replicated by including aerosol indirect effects. This bears implications for future projections of changes to the South Asian monsoon, suggesting an underestimate of rainfall declines if the these indirect effects are not included.